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In the past couple of years, when someone asked me how long I expected the war to continue, I answered that it's going to be very long, potentially about 20 years. I said that because the ruling globohomo[1] is extremely malignant, vindictive, and above all hungry for power. They cannot tolerate a formation of any alternative power centers, and having put Russia into a position of an adversary, they have no choice but to defeat it. Otherwise, the very foundations of their power will be shaken.

However, these motivations are not rational, and my assessement of them is founded on the general observations of the kind of people we have in power (such a Ted Cruz and Jake Sullivan). In addition, although U.S. is the backbone of globohomo's hard power, the country's interests are not in alignment with globohomo's interests. So, what if someone stopped to think what these interests were?

At the end of 2022, someone at RAND did just that, and produced a report, that takes about an hour or two to read. I am reluctant to quote just the conclusions, because the thinking from the position of American interests is very interesting. But surprisingly enough, the conclusion was that "... avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control."

A year after this report was written, we can see Ukraine running out of men[2]. My expecation was that once Ukraine is done, the globohomo will throw another nation into The War, most likely Poland. They will continue this until Russia is spent, was my thinking from the basics. They finally found a formula of waging a hot war with Russia without going nuclear, of course they will want to expoit it. But what if someone in American ruling circles were to listen to RAND? What if they can break free from globohomo and act in the American interests? Then the war would be over and I would be wrong.

Either way, read the report if you have the time.

[1] Obviously "globohomo" is an online slur. But it is apt, and the best approximation that the serious thinkers produced was The Global Transnational Elite. I'm going to continue using the slur in the absence of an alternative.

[2] Articles on the topic are dime a dozen today, but the one at WaPo was written before the failed counter-offensive of 2023. What an example of journalism.

Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at 11:15 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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